Every few hours, a new headline drops:
"The U.S. is approaching a dangerous measles precipice..."
"Outbreaks could explode..."
"Millions of cases forecast over 25 years..."
But what if you had access to real-time estimates based on how measles actually spreads?
What if you didn’t have to guess, fear, or rely on drama-driven reporting?
That’s what VaxCalc does.
Our AI-driven model tracks outbreak trends, reporting lags, and known case durations to give you a far more accurate estimate of how many measles cases are truly active right now.
This week’s reality check (as of April 25):
- Official total: 884 cases reported in 2025 (cumulative)
- Likely active cases nationwide: about 108 to 115
“Big scary outbreak? Fuggedaboutit. I’ve seen bigger problems at a kid’s birthday party. Still, smart crew keeps an eye on the playground.”
— Tony, Protector of the Crew
Compare for yourself:
🧠 VaxCalc estimate:

📺 Mainstream headlines:

We’re not downplaying risk. We’re just refusing to inflate it.
If you want to make smart decisions for your family — without the fear fog — get the real intel.
Join VaxCalc and get access to weekly outbreak reports and tools to customize your vaccine strategy.